We examine the electoral consequences of trade sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, focusing on their impact within one of the EU’s key member states. Using municipal-level voting data from the 2018 and 2022 general elections in Italy, we apply a shift-share methodology to attribute the sector-specific export shocks to municipalities based on their pre-existing employment composition. Our findings reveal that support for the pro-Russian party, the League, increases by 4.9 percentage points for every €1,000 decline in per-capita exports to Russia at the municipal level. In contrast, voter turnout and support for other parties remain unaffected. These results highlight the political repercussions of international trade disruptions, offering broader insights into how economic sanctions can influence domestic political dynamics.
