Galetovic A., Sanhueza R. (2000)
Citizens, Autocrats, and Plotters: A Model and Some New Evidence on Coups d’Etat. Economics and Politics, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 183-204.
We present a model of coups in autocracies. Assuming that policy choices cannot be observed but are correlated with the short‐run performance of the economy we find that: (a) the threat of a coup disciplines autocrats; (b) coups are more likely in recessions; (c) increasing per capita income has an ambiguous effect on the probability of a coup. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence. On average, one recession in the previous year increases the probability of a coup attempt by 47 percent. By contrast, the effect of the level of per capita income is weak.